 Builders focusing on more affordable housing. If you answered San Francisco, you would have been right, that is, if we were talking about home prices. But we’re not. In terms of new home starts, the Dallas/Ft. Worth area remains the No. 1 market in the country with 35,090 housing starts per year, according to data from Metrostudy, a provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries. In fact, its housing starts even continue to grow, jumping 12.1% year-over-year in the second quarter, the data showed. And annual closings soared, rising 20.8% annually, the largest increase since the third quarter of 2013. Metrostudy explained this increase in closings follows six months of builders delivering affordable homes in the $200,000 to $300,000 range. The median new home price even dropped in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area by 1.7% from last year to $325,400. Early this year, Freddie Mac predicted new home sales will be the driving factor of housing growth this year as the market struggles to produce enough inventory for the rising demand for homes. And now, that market just got a little more affordable as builders concentrate market growth in the more affordable market segments. The chart below shows what percentage of new home starts are built in each price range.  (Source: Metrostudy) The data further enforces the shifting demand for lower-priced homes.
“As builders and developers push to deliver smaller lots and more affordably priced product, expect the median price to fall,” said Paige Shipp, regional director of Metrostudy’s Dallas-Fort Worth market. “In a market where new and resale price appreciation significantly outpaced wage growth, a lower median price indicates that more homebuyers will be able to afford new homes.” “The median resale price of $258,000 is 5.7% higher than 2017,” Shipp said. “As the median new home price drops and resale price increases, the delta between new and resale narrows. Currently, the difference between the median resale and new home price is 26.1%. The greatest difference in price was 50% in 2015.” But this comes at a time when, across the U.S., affordability dropped to a 10-year low due to low mortgage inventory, rising home prices and even Canadian lumber tariffs, according to the latest report from the National Association of Home Builders. Source: This article is based upon the facts published by AppraisalNewsCast, which is an appraisal blog in USA.
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Plus what to expect in world economy’s most important week
Monday Morning Cup of Coffee takes a look at news coming across HousingWire’s weekend desk, with more coverage to come on larger issues. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development released a plan in April that HUD Secretary Ben Carson says will push millions of low-income households toward self-sufficiency. Under the current system, Carson explained many low-income earners are discouraged from, or even penalized for, finding higher-paying jobs as they would lose their current benefits and perhaps be worse off than when they earned a lower income. But HUD’s proposed plan quickly earned criticism as an analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities showed it would raise rates for the poorest Americans by about 20% and would raise the minimum rent from $50 to $150 per month. However, now it seems Carson is reconsidering that plan. At the Bipartisan Policy Center Friday, he said additional funding from Congress eliminated the immediate need to raise rents. “The reason we had to consider raising rents at all is because we were dealing with a $41 billion budget,” Carson said. “And in order to be able to keep from raising rents on the elderly and the disabled, and in order to not displace people who are already being taken care of, that was necessary.” “Now that the budget has been changed, the necessity for doing that is not urgent,” he said. Much bigger changes could be in store this week as the world economy prepares for its most important week this year. For starters, Monday morning will show the first look at investors’ opinion of everything that happened at the G-7 summit. Judging by President Donald Trump’s Twitter feed after the summit, it did not go smoothly.
Mortgage Bankers Association President and CEO David Stevens already passed his judgment on the recent events, saying history is watching. Threatening our allies and friends while demanding that we get closer to Putin who literally murders the opposition, intervenes in US elections, and rips off his people to feed the oligarchs while supporting Assad is outrageous……history has it’s eyes on us #stopthis
And U.S. economists still wonder if rising threats of trade wars will threaten the economy, even sending the country into its next recession.
But the G-7 summit isn’t the only thing investors will be watching. This week, Trump will have his historic meeting with North Korea, where he will try to negotiate a peace deal and convince the country to give up its nuclear weapons. Here in the U.S., the Federal Reserve will meet and is expected to announce an increase to the federal funds rate Wednesday. This will be the second rate hike this year, out of the projected three to four rate hikes for 2018. Click here to see other major events this week that combine to make it the most important week this year for the world economy. Over the weekend the St. Louis Fed tweeted out a graph showing how many new homes have been sold in seven price ranges since 2002. The results are eye-opening. While new homes priced under $150,000 made up a large portion of the market from 2002 to around 2007, the chart below shows the price range has now nearly disappeared entirely. The story is much the same for homes priced from $150,000 to $199,999. Homes priced between $200,000 to $299,999 decreased slightly. On the other hand, homes in the $300,000 to $399,999 range, $400,000 to $499,999 range, $500,000 to $749,999 range and the $750,000 and above range all saw a slight increase in new homes sold. Because there is a higher concentration of homes available in the upper-end markets, first-time homebuyers continue to struggle. A recent study from the National Association of Realtors and realtor.com shows in some markets, first-time homebuyers can only afford about 20% of the housing stock. Meanwhile, homeowners continue to rejoice as tappable equity surged to its highest dollar amount on record, far surpassing its previous 2005 peak, according to a recent Mortgage Monitor Report from Black Knight. Former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray, who recently secured the Democratic nomination for Ohio governor, announced his plan to help make college more affordable in the state through the use of community colleges. Cordray explained that while community colleges are a cheaper alternative to a four-year university, and could provide different alternatives such ask skills training, according to an article by Ben Garbarek for ABC. From the article: “We need different paths,” Cordray said. “We need certification programs. We need skills training. We need two-year degree programs and we need two years as a step to a four-year degree which community colleges can also provide.”
As former head of the CFPB, Cordray is no stranger to the chaos student debt continues to cause in the housing industry, and the growing crisis.
In fact, HousingWire’s March issue outlined the long-term consequences [subscription required] of student debt on the housing economy. As it turns out, student debt is taking a much larger toll on the housing economy than previously thought. As college becomes more expensive, less homebuyers from every generation are able to afford buying a home, and many graduates are expected to eventually default on their student loans, creating yet another obstacle for homeownership. Source: AppraisalNewsCast, which is a real estate appraisal blog.  Opting for an online estate agent as opposed to a high street one comes with its pros and cons, but recent research suggests that sellers might be more likely to see a sale through to completion with Purplebricks.
Investec Bank has revealed through research completed by VIGA that of all the properties listed with online agent Purplebricks, 76% are successfully sold, which is higher than the UK national average. Of the remaining 24% that didn’t sell, 42% were taken off the market, while 34% were sold by another agent and 10% of sales fell through. Purplebricks has been in the spotlight recently due to its ongoing row with investment firm Jefferies who claimed earlier this year that the agent actually sold only 51.6% of the properties that were listed in November 2016 within 10 months. However, the latest research, according to Purplebricks, proves that this accusation was false. More Convenient For Customers Customers saved more than £100m last year by using the Purplebricks fixed fee model instead of the commission-based rates charged by high street agents, according to the company, and the increased competition in the industry had forced high street agents to reduce their commission rates in 2014. Lee Wainwright, UK CEO of Purplebricks, said: “It is no surprise that more and more people are turning to hybrid estate agents. The transparency, convenience and potential savings on hefty commission rates makes the decision a smart choice. The way that people buy and sell property has changed. “People want the personal service of Local Property Experts in combination with great technology so they can transparently and conveniently interact and see everything that is happening 24/7.” No Sale, No Fee Another popular online estate agent, HouseSimple, has also just become a “no sale, no fee” agency and is believed to be the only one operating in this manner. The firm will now be charging sellers a fixed fee of £995 including VAT once the sale has completed. Sam Mitchell, chief executive of HouseSimple, said: “Every single person in our organisation has a laser beam focus on selling properties. We also want to provide real clarity of proposition for our customers and believe the best way to do this is to offer one simple proposition; a No Sale No Fee service. This ensures we are completely aligned with our vendors’ objectives.” Source: Content of this article is taken from AppraisalNewsCast, a famous real estate news blog in USA. This Episode of Coest2Coest we had Chief Compliance Officer and Former State Regulator Toni Bright. Toni was fortunate enough to share some tips on how to handle the appraisal rebuttal process in the most efficient manner. Coest2Coest - Transcript Brian Coester: Yeah, I was in California all week visiting customers all across the west coast and a lot of these guys, you know, they get a job at a branch or their, this is their second job there, 25, maybe 35 years old, um, and there are new to the mortgage industry and they get an appraisal. They been spending six months trying to court this realtor to give them their first purchase and they sent an appraisal in and boom, appraisal doesn't come in value. Okay. So obviously it's such a small percentage of deals that it usually, it's a pretty big deal when it happens. Obviously nobody's in the business of just like, we're not in the business of throwing values. We're definitely not in the business of killing deals. Um, you know, but at the same time, you know, a lot of times is a mortgage originator. You're frustrated, I don't know how to appeal this. I don't know what to do. So what does a mortgage originator give them some points, um, to help them during this process of talking, what should they say to the realtor? What should they say to the bar where you know, what should they say the other AMC or appraisal desk? Toni Bright: Absolutely, and it is a frustration and it is a, a huge aggravation when you are on the other side because you understand, appraisal is an opinion of value, right? So as a regulator I thought you'd never recorded come in over a $30,000 difference on about a $200,000 house and I thought Oh, one of these has to be wrong and you know what? Faith on the support given reports would seemed to be a credible report because you'll know that there's that much difference because each supported their value properly with all information that was necessary on the federal level. Now fast forward, if you get one of those, if you are, again, it's making sure that you are looking at back and there is a difference between what someone is willing to pay and when a home his truly work. Fritz: Right. Excellent Point. Toni Bright: is all fine as an extremely emotional experience and we all think that what we are buying is the very best out there and we want everyone else to say it's the dream home that they've always wanted, highly emotional, and as a result we ask the professionals, when we're out a mortgage broker, a real estate agent, the appraisal management company, we have to maintain that professionalism and try our best to take the emotion out of it for ourselves. We have to acknowledge the fact that our quiet, the fire, the borrower, the recent answer, that they are frustrated that their hearts and so we have look at it from the fact and so we have to say, you know, Miss Mr bottleworks comments work more, but I won't say who has a good real estate agent in a hot market. You are prepping your home buyer that there is a chance that they're purchasing a home above value above, above purchase price. Excuse me, above purchase price. There's a chance that the value ends up appraisal report. The opinion and how you may not come in to what they're paying for it. I think that has a real estate agent. You have a due diligence to look to just tell your clients there is a chance that could happened because this is a hot market, whatever, but in the event that that happens. Brian Coester: It was a real chance that could happen. Yeah. Toni Bright: absolutely, and I think that it's important to everyone from of the power point, that potential situation because then if it happens so you can go back, say, remember we had this discussion, this is now what we have to do and in in what they have to do is they have to look at at the market it legitimately, realistically as the professional and say, are there other homes out there in this area that could potentially be comparable, that could be used and they can't submit a reconsideration, a reconsideration for other things, perhaps the square footage, they can go wrong. There is nothing in federal law. This has an appraiser cannot correct and appraisal report for air. However, no one under federal law has a 40 permission. Anything to actually demand that and a appraiser change the value or any other, any other opinion of their report. So as a result, it's different. Very fine line. You have to deal with fat, you have to make requests to say, can you please explain why x wouldn't use for, um, you know, could you use props? There's, as a comparable options. Brian Coester: So I always thought like when it comes to, to your point, right? So you're a state regulator, you get a complaint, you get a value at 200,000 and a value to 20, you think one of these must be, right? Right. And then that is sort of like everyone's first opinion and then you realize after doing it for awhile, well actually both seem sort of right in their own process. And as you know, obviously if you're buying a house and the difference between 200, 220 is the, you know, the higher opinion, um, you know, it can be frustrating, but at the same time, you know, respecting the process is important in the sense of, of um, you know, those opinions are valuable right now. What do I need to put together on my side or the fans to make sure that when I do come back or, or, or if I do want to go back to my lender or realtor or appraisal management company or praise or what should I put together knowing that, um, it's an opinion to try and say, hey, you know, I think the 220 all though the 200 is still correct. I think the 220 is correct or um, and would like to, to either change the appraisal or um, use that one per se. Toni Bright: First of all, with what I would see him at the state level. It was often for refinance situation if that was the case where you had one that we've done a couple years before and it was higher than the current one or vice versa. But in this situation change occasionally on a purchase, we would see that kind of a situation where they work on play dot. It really is me as an ASC cannot make that decision. If they choose to order an appraisal that is letter division and they have to make, we cannot in any way encourage that because it less there has been a true the appraisals done in the first one as we know that there have been standards violated it upgrader which happened so. So once I as my youth percentage, I mean it's not even a half a percent where that kinds of thing happened. Fritz: Yeah Exceptional. Toni Bright: Yeah. I mean that's. So we will not get involved in that situation. I'll be half my power with our client wants to come to us and asked them if they feel that with slow, we're more than happy to walk them through a value reconsideration process. Every pool management company handles those differently. We have a process in place that protect us and our lender clients. The attempt of undue influence on an appraiser. We certainly tried to make sure that that never happens up. We don't want that to happen. We want the true. I'm biased. Opinion of value to be rendered by our appraisers and see results. I'm principal at an earlier and it is very, very true and appraiser can say no to an assignment up until the day that they're completely done with that assignment and they filed it higher appraisal, no one file if any point, feel pressured in any way. They have the legal right to walk away so you never want to make an appraisers feel as if they are being pressured for that you are making an ultimatum or that you're threatening them in any way and I processes are designed to protest on Friday to protect on lender clients and be able to walk them through that process. We also only allows one lender, clients appraisals, reconsideration request. No. There might be other revision requests that come in that has to be dealt with on a. We only allow the lender to submit a reconsideration of values with additional information and so definitely we have some great market leader as a great relationship managers of walk our clients through how to do that if they don't know how to do it or if they have never used before. Brian Coester: Yeah, and that's always been a tough. Now Fritz, you have dealt with this in a completely different capacity because she's been on an underwriter or a process or originator, you know, all of that in between and you know, and then on this side, you mean these come to your office, you know, every day. So, so what have you seen be effective and not effective in this? Fritz: So the most important thing, um, that you need to do if you're doing a reconsideration is first of all, respect the fact that you only get one of these and understand what that means because people tend to, when they have one shot at doing something, they tend to take a lot more seriously than if they get to just go over and over and over and over. Okay? So the reason you have only one shot, one chance is because past that it starts, it becomes an issue of, well, when do you cut this off? What do you say? Enough's enough, right? Because you're not supposed to be trying to influence the appraiser in any specific way, but if you're coming back to him over and over and over again on the same report with new comps every, you know, every week, that's a clear attempt to influence, right? So you only get one shot. Make sure that you're looking at the data that you're submitting. Make sure that, first of all, make sure the data that you're submitting is accurate. That's the first thing. And also make sure it's appropriate if the subject property you have is a thousand square feet of a sale, that even if it's down the street that's 2000 square feet and Goa is not a comparable sale. Okay. So you know, know that and know that if the appraiser sees that and sees that giant Berenson gala is going to dismiss that, he's going to dismiss that as, that's why I didn't use it. You know, it's interesting, for instance, to that point. Brian Coester: the number of times, like I was doing appraisals in Virginia and I was doing a condo in Virginia. Nice condo. Ah, actually, yeah. Nice condo. And, you know, I had four or five sales in the project in Virginia that would look just like it and the value came in low. And so the person goes to another building in DC says, hey, use these three, right? Just think to yourself, well, I have three in the building, right? Right. Like I couldn't use like, it's comparable. So the most similar, you know, would, would, would get used not just the one that would hit the value and a lot of times and just sort of, you know, knowing this or when the other side of the fence, um, as an appraiser from my side, what I would do is on the mls software, when I start to do my data research to find me the comparables, I would actually remove the value element from the, uh, columns right on the spreadsheet so that it's sort of like you got square footage, you got a picture of the house, you've got acreage, you've got, um, you know, garage, you've got lot size, you've got general characteristics and you got the photos. And I would go through those, narrow them down to 10 or 15 from the hundreds, right? Uh, in the market or in the general market, depending on, on how I was doing a search. And it's amazing how close she would come in value. There would not be a big rain and I would use that as sort of like my baseline to say, okay, you know, this is a great way of starting that process, right? These are the houses that I feel like are similar, um, and really has nothing to do with value. Fritz: Well, and, and, and the reason that that works. Toni Bright: You forget your phone again, excuse me. You're both very metropolitan areas and we forgive our Iowa oriented. Sometimes it's in the midwestern areas where we have very rural. Brian Coester: That's true. That's true. True. Toni Bright: Yeah. Fritz: Yeah. Every market is different and every market's gonna have its own challenges. But when we got to wrap it up here in a minute, but, but here's, here's what I want to say, and this is the reason why I say that this is a, that's a really a better way to approach it. And I would actually recommend that for appraisers. I, I hope that, I think that that's the way most appraisers do it because if you're looking at, you know, if you're looking at what makes a comparable, the one thing that you're not really going to look at as an appraiser is what the current value is or what the expected value is. Because that doesn't matter. It's the same bedroom count. Is it the same Gla? Is it the same age as it roughly the same finished construction quality. Okay. All of those other factors. That's hard data that doesn't change. Okay. The value changes depending on the market, the characteristics of the property do not change obviously, unless there's a renovation or what have you. But. And that's why when you start looking at this is why I say look at your data, focus on data. So that's why you have to, to look at it in there. Brian Coester: Absolutely. Absolutely. Yeah. And Tony, you still there? Nope, I think we're disconnected actually. Sorry. No, it's no problem. It was fantastic by the way. I mean, Tony, Tony's always a great guest. She's a great case and this is going to be great content for the blog to make sure that this. I'm going to call back in real quick while you're, I'm gonna. Make sure this specific video gets uploaded. Um, no, that was good. That was good. That was good. Fritz: We're still on Youtube, right? Yeah. No, we're still alive. We're still alive. We've got three people watching. Just let's, let's just wrap it up then for the youtube audience and we'll deal with the blog stuff after the fact. But um, but yeah, this is the whole point of, of making the decision based on the data. Okay. And to your point, if an appraiser is approaching their comp selection in that way, you know that they're getting the best comps because they're looking at what's relevant. Again, there is no emotion involved with how many bedrooms you've got. Brian Coester and Fritz: Correct? Correct. And I think, uh, same can't be said for the expectation of value, correct? Correct. Correct. And I think, you know, again, if I'm a lender, um, what I would do is really just focus on really looking at the appraisal. First of all, find an appraisal company that that would work with your work with allied health. I mean you shouldn't be on your own completely about this, but then also talk with the real utter, just setting realistic expectations as far as that it is a independent assessment that more normally than the appraiser is in the best interest of the bar or um, to have, uh, the appraiser is most accurate unbiased opinions. So we want to make sure that that's really in the forefront, but then also realize that a very small percentage of these actually happen, so it's less than three to five percent of purchases. So when it does happen, just realize it's only every now and then and a lot of it's market driven. So a lot of times you're in a situation where the market is changing and it's going to happen more consistently necessarily in your market or not at all because of the market conditions and it's and its timeline. So it will be a period of three to six months to where it happens very frequently. And then for the next year, you might not have it happen at all because market conditions. Fritz: As he just, they've up, the data's called, right, it's caught up. Brian Coester: in sometimes. And just last point, because I know we've got to wrap up, is that sometimes it's a good thing and more often than not, we run in the purchases that, you know, there's multiple offers. They're way above the actual real value of that house. They're just trying to get the contract in. So, uh, the appraisal coming in low is not always. And you've seen that, right? Fritz: Oh sure. Absolutely. I mean, look, I'll tell you right now, if I'm buying a property and the appraisal comes in low, I'm excited. That's my opportunity to renegotiate myself a better deal. And that's what borrowers and homeowners need to keep in mind. That's particularly borrowers who are purchasing. Okay? Typically on a refi, you already own the property. You want it to have that higher value because that means you have a better equity position to better position a better rate usually. But if you're doing a purchase, particularly if you're the borrower or the realtor and you're helping someone do a purchase on a property and the and the appraisal comes in low, you know, I understand you want to scrutinize that to make sure that it's accurate, that's fine, but that's actually a benefit to your, to your borrower, because that means they're gonna pay less for that, uh, for that property. And more importantly, most importantly is you don't want them overpaying for that home. Okay? You're not going to get referrals if you're the guy who's over selling, if you're putting, if you're, you know, people are paying too much for the properties that you're helping them purchase. You're not gonna end up getting referrals because people are smart. They're going to figure out that they overpaid for that property and they're gonna figure it out really, really quickly. So it's in everyone's best interest to make sure that we're dealing with what the data actually provides, what the market actually shows and look, in some cases that means like Brian said. So usually it's minor. It's usually about three to five percent because for the most part, you know, realtors know how to evaluate the market conditions and they understand where the market is and they, and they do a good job of setting pricing. Um, now that being said, yeah, about three to five percent you're looking at a variants, but understand where, if that comes in low, it actually can be a benefit to you and to your borrower. It doesn't necessarily have to be. Brian Coester: Definitely. Well, thank you so much. <Unk>. I know we have had multiple issues. I think we've got it figured out, but we will be uploading a version of this on a youtube channel, shortened, uh, and then you can always watch it on a blog talk as well. So thank you so much. Fritz: Well, no, we'll just, we'll see you guys next week. We got a lot of exciting guests coming up. I can't wait and we'll be putting out some more information on this upcoming year. Source: Brian Coester, Coest2Coest - Youtube  A “bedroom community” refers to a suburb outside a major metropolis where the majority of residents commute to the city for work. These town have a number of characteristics that identify them but, according to new research from NeighborhoodScout, they are also known for safety. In fact, these suburban cities topped their most recent list of the nation’s safest cities. Andrew Schiller, CEO of NeighborhoodScout, says bedroom communities combine features that are attractive to home buyers. “We continue to see bedroom communities, which are within large metro areas and near major urban centers like Boston, Chicago, and New York, make the top of our list,” Schiller says. “These safe communities within the urban/suburban fabric of America’s largest metropolitan areas often combine access to high-paying jobs in the urban center, decent schools, and a high quality of life. This access to opportunity increases home values, with the result often being lower crime.” Cities in the Northeast topped the list, including Ridgefield, CT, which was named the country’s safest city.
Here are the list of top 100 cities of 2018.
Source: AppraisalNewsCast, an appraisal news blog, NeighborhoodScout |
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